Analyzing Future Forecasts: NY-NJ Harbor

The Louis Berger Group (Berger) undertook a study for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) of the impact of alternative channel depths on the vessel fleets calling at the New York and New Jersey Harbors (NYH), the largest in the North Atlantic. The Team surveyed 50 vessel and terminal operators and analyzed their likely responses to varying channel depths over a 20-year horizon, 1995 to 2015. The Berger Team also reviewed the trade routes, East Coast rotation, vessel size and service characteristics of 43 major container lines serving NYH in 1994. The Team developed a draft response model to establish when the cost of feedering New York and New Jersey from other deeper ports is lower than direct shipment due to draft limitations. The study found that as channel depth decreases, cargo losses and added costs for serving NYH rise exponentially.

Should the inability to dredge lead to a three-foot reduction in channel depth from 40 to 37 feet, the region would suffer a 30 percent cargo loss and a 25 percent increase in shipping costs. Furthermore, as the worldwide container fleet shifts to larger vessels, a growing percentage of cargo will be affected by draft constraints at NYH. The teams analytical model was then applied to various future service patterns assuming that the year 2015 fleet would incorporate post-Panamax vessels, rapid growth in Southeast Asian trade, increased shipments through the Suez Canal and a projected growth of NYH container volume to 3.75 million TEUs by 2015. The result is a significantly larger volume of cargo diversions and added costs for NYH. In addition to the container analysis, the Berger Team investigated other cargo types including the liquid bulk sector's likely response to shallower drafts. The existing petroleum tanker fleets calling at NYH in 1994 already incurred $2.3 million per year in additional expenses associated primarily with lightering at a 40-foot channel depth. Channel deepening to 45 feet would reduce tanker lightering expenses to less than $100,000 per year, while channel depths of 35 and 30 feet would result in annual costs of nearly $10 and $25 million, respectively.

Also in the New York-New Jersey area, The Louis Berger Group was contracted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to study deep-draft navigation needs for two anchorages in Raritan Bay: Perth Amboy and Sandy Hook, New Jersey. The former is an important existing anchorage, while the latter has been authorized but not constructed. In recent years, there have been significant increases in the volumes of imported crude petroleum transiting through NYH, and a trend toward larger, more cost-effective tankers requiring deeper drafts. The shortage of suitable anchorages in the Raritan area creates delays, increases costs for lighterage and, in general, limits tanker size calling on the petroleum facilities. Various alternatives were evaluated in terms of dredging costs, environmental and safety concerns and savings due to reduced delay and freeing of lighterage capacity for use elsewhere in the port. The study included an examination of current anchorage demand, slot utilization and capacity, demand for anchorage, lighterage practices by vessel draft and vessel fleet and forecasts of future demand for slots. The study findings, which would signifiantly reduce overall dredging needs, recommended enlarging the existing anchorage site to accommodate two empty large tankers or one empty large tanker and a midsize tanker; deepening the facility from 37 to 40 feet to allow lighterage for midsize tankers; and dedicating the Stapleton anchorage for large vessel lightering and the Perth Amboy anchorage for departing vessels.

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